Project overview
Understanding variation in vaccination decisions across people and places in the Netherlands.
Vaccination uptake is shaped by more than information alone. People differ in how they weigh disease risk, vaccine benefits, social expectations, autonomy, trust, and practical confidence. This project connects detailed vaccination decision profiles with broader mapped profile groups that can support local pandemic preparedness.
Please note: the results shown here are provisional and may change as the analyses and mapped estimates are updated.
Study 1
The first paper uses latent profile analysis in a representative Dutch LISS sample to identify 12 COVID-19 vaccination decision profiles. These are population patterns, not labels for individual people. The 12-profile solution preserves psychological nuance, showing why people with similar intentions may still need different kinds of communication and support.
These profiles generally support vaccination, but not all for the same reasons. Some combine positive vaccine beliefs with strong moral obligation and social norms; others are positive while still showing more mixed feelings about vaccination.
These profiles sit closer to the middle on intention. They differ less by disease beliefs and more by vaccine beliefs, autonomy, freedom, and moral obligation.
These smaller profiles have lower vaccination intention. They differ most in vaccine beliefs and individual values such as autonomy, freedom, naturalness, and purity concerns.
Each card shows the profile's share of the study population and the percentage who intended to vaccinate in July 2021. The fill colour tracks intention to vaccinate from lower red to higher blue. The left edge marks the profile family.
Strong positive beliefs and a clear moral or social pro-vaccination signal.
Generally accepting, with a more mixed or less decisive profile than the strongest positive groups.
Consistently positive vaccine beliefs, social norms, and perceived benefits.
Largest profile; broadly accepting with moderately strong positive beliefs.
Positive overall, but with more room for practical questions or ambivalent feelings.
Small high-intention profile.
Middle intention; support may depend on reducing uncertainty and clarifying benefits.
Neutral but somewhat more inclined toward vaccination than the other neutral profiles.
More hesitant neutral profile where autonomy and freedom may weigh more strongly.
Low intention profile.
Lowest intention profile.
Small negative profile.
| Profile | Group | N | % | Intention to vaccinate, Jan 2021 | Intention to vaccinate, Jul 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Positive | 178 | 6.9% | 89.07 | 93.11 |
| 2 | Positive | 287 | 11.1% | 72.57 | 84.64 |
| 3 | Positive | 331 | 12.8% | 87.95 | 94.23 |
| 4 | Positive | 621 | 24.0% | 81.65 | 88.64 |
| 5 | Positive | 242 | 9.4% | 70.13 | 81.72 |
| 6 | Positive | 48 | 1.9% | 83.29 | 91.96 |
| 7 | Neutral | 300 | 11.6% | 46.19 | 60.90 |
| 8 | Neutral | 299 | 11.6% | 52.86 | 67.69 |
| 9 | Neutral | 89 | 3.4% | 33.16 | 49.70 |
| 10 | Negative | 71 | 2.7% | 11.80 | 19.48 |
| 11 | Negative | 88 | 3.4% | 5.23 | 15.24 |
| 12 | Negative | 31 | 1.2% | 27.90 | 37.71 |
Study 2
The map shows five broad profile groups across Dutch geographic areas. These groups combine the twelve vaccination decision profiles from Study 1 into three positive groups, one neutral group, and one negative group. The five-group solution is a modelling compromise: it preserves less psychological detail than the 12-profile survey solution, but it is a more reliable basis for mapping with registry data.
Placeholder to be described when the final Study 2 group labels are fixed. These groups combine profiles with generally positive vaccination intentions.
Placeholder to be described. This group represents more mixed intentions and beliefs that may be sensitive to context.
Placeholder to be described. This group combines profiles with lower vaccination intention and stronger concerns about vaccination.
The Study 2 map shows CBS-linked aggregate estimates by geography and selected demographic filters. Values are percentages at aggregate level. Cells suppressed under CBS output rules, or regions without data for a selected filter combination, are shown in grey.
Lessons
The profiles help separate belief patterns that may look similar in uptake statistics. Lower intention can reflect different needs, such as trust-building, autonomy-sensitive communication, or practical access support.
Positive, neutral, and negative profiles differ in vaccine beliefs, social values, moral obligation, and trust. A single information message is therefore unlikely to fit all audiences equally well.
The wijk map is an aggregate planning tool. It can guide questions, partnerships, and resource allocation, but it should not be used to infer the profile or motives of individual residents.
Project team
Danielle Timmermans
Professor, Public Health Risk Communication, Amsterdam UMC
Mitchell Matthijssen
Postdoctoral researcher, RISC Amsterdam / Amsterdam UMC
Vincent Buskens
Professor, Sociology, Utrecht University
Javier Garcia Bernardo
Assistant Professor, Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University
Taymara C. Abreu
Postdoctoral Researcher, Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University
The project is funded by ZonMw through the Kennisprogramma Pandemische Paraatheid. It develops modelling tools to estimate the distribution of vaccination decision profiles at population and local levels, with the aim of informing more targeted vaccination interventions.